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The Countries Championing the Smoking Decline

Which countries are cutting back on the habit?

Smoking rates are changing around the world due to actions such as vaping bans, but the pace of decline varies considerably between countries. Price, interest in quitting and current smoking prevalence all help to show where the strongest shifts are taking place.

To find out more, health insurance comparison service iSelect analysed current data to identify the top countries for smoking decline. Using figures from 103 countries, we looked at adult smoking rates, changes in prevalence, projected 2030 smoking rates, cigarette prices and quitting-related search interest. Separate indexes were also created for Australian states and territories and US states, using the most comparable data available for each location. This international index is designed to identify the top countries for smoking decline rather than rank broader nicotine policies. As such, it should not be read as a list of the top countries for vaping or as a direct measure of a global vaping decline. 

Which countries are leading the decline in smoking?

Across the countries analysed, the strongest performers combine falling smoking rates with lower projected prevalence, higher cigarette costs and greater interest in quitting.

1. Australia: 74.65

Australia is leading the smoking decline. Its adult smoking rate is 7.8%, down 3.7% over the last three years, while the predicted rate for 2030 is 6.4%. Australia also records the highest cigarette pack price in the international dataset at US$37.19, or AU$52.81, alongside 217.2 quitting-related searches per 100,000 people.

2. United Kingdom: 70.59

The UK is the second-strongest performer in the smoking decline index with an adult smoking rate of 8.4% and a 5.6% decline over three years. Meanwhile, the country’s smoking rate prediction for 2030 is 6.4%, the same as Australia.

3. Denmark: 68.80

Denmark ranks third with a 10.2% adult smoking rate. It also records 558.8 quitting-related searches per 100,000 people, which is one of the strongest search-interest figures among the leading countries.

4. Norway: 66.06

Norway combines a relatively low adult smoking rate of 6.2%, with a 6.1% decline. This means that the rate has almost halved in the last three years. The smoking rate is predicted to drop further to 4.5% by 2030.

5. New Zealand: 64.98

New Zealand ranks fifth. Its adult smoking rate is 8.9%, down 4.3%, with prevalence projected to fall to 7% by 2030. New Zealand’s cigarette prices are the second-highest after Australia at US$25.08 (AU$35.61). 

6. India: 60.72

India records the largest decline within the international study at 7.3%. Its current adult smoking rate is 3.8% and this is expected the reduce to 2.8% by 2030.

7. Canada: 60.11

Canada’s smoking rate stands at 8.4%, with a projected 2030 rate of 6.7%, while quitting-related searches reach 141.4 per 100,000 people.

8. Ireland: 59.04

The smoking rate is 14.1% in Ireland. Its relatively strong quitting interest of 254.2 searches per 100,000 people contributes to it making the top ten. 

9. Paraguay: 58.36

Paraguay records one of the lowest smoking rates in the top ten at just 4%. Like India, this is projected to fall further to 2.8% by 2030. However, quitting-related search interest remains relatively low at 19.2 per 100,000. 

10. Panama: 58.06

Panama completes the top ten with a smoking rate of just 3.7%, with the data projecting a further decline to 3% by 2030.

Which Australian states are seeing the strongest shift?

Australia’s state and territory rankings reveal some sharp differences in smoking and vaping prevalence, cigarette prices and interest in quitting.

1. South Australia: 85.15

South Australia leads the Australian index of smoking decline data with a score of 85.15. Its regular smoking rate is 9.1%, while its vaping rate is 4.9%. It also records the highest quitting-related search rate at 256.5 per 100,000 people.

2. Australian Capital Territory: 82.46

The ACT has the lowest smoking rate in the country at 6.5%, alongside a vaping rate of 5.7%. Quitting-related searches are made by 231.1 per 100,000 people, while cigarettes cost roughly $63.99 per pack.

3. Victoria: 58.60

Victoria records 9.2% of the population smoking and 7.0% vaping. It records 208.4 quitting-related searches per 100,000 people, with the cost of a pack of cigarettes at $63.99.

4. New South Wales: 51.29

New South Wales has a smoking rate of 8.8% and the highest vaping rate in the ranking at 7.9%. Quitting-related search interest stands at 194.4 searches per 100,000 people, while cigarettes cost $63.99 per pack.

5. Western Australia: 44.96

Western Australia has a smoking rate of 10.8% and a vaping rate of 6.9%. A pack of cigarettes costs $59, while quitting-related searches are made by 212.2 per 100,000 people.

6. Tasmania: 40.66

Tasmania records a smoking rate of 14.6%, the second-highest in the nation, but the lowest vaping rate at 3.7%. It also has 239.5 quitting-related searches per 100,000 people, with cigarettes costing $52 per pack.

7. Queensland: 35.89

Queensland records a smoking rate of 12.3% – the third-highest in Australia – and a vaping rate of 6.9%. Quitting-related searches stand at 236.5 per 100,000 people, while a pack of cigarettes costs $52.50.

8. Northern Territory: 35.56

The Northern Territory has the highest smoking rate at 16.4%, alongside a vaping rate of 6.6%. Cigarettes cost $63.99 per pack, while quitting-related searches stand at 215.5 per 100,000 people.

Which US states rank highest for smoking decline?

The US index shows a similarly varied picture, with smoking rates, year-on-year declines, cigarette taxes, prices and quitting-related searches all influencing the final scores.

1. New York: 72.43

New York has the largest smoking decline in the US, recording an adult smoking rate of 9.3% and an impressive 17.7% year-on-year decline. It also has the highest cigarette tax in the country at US$5.35 per pack, while cigarettes cost an average of $15.32.

2. Connecticut: 71.18

Connecticut has an adult smoking rate of 8.4%, the lowest in the country, alongside a 16% year-on-year decline. A pack of cigarettes costs $14, while quitting-related searches reach 165.7 per 100,000 people.

3. District of Columbia: 70.69

While technically not a state, the District of Columbia records an adult smoking rate of 9.8%. It also has the highest quitting-related search interest among the top five at 286.9 searches per 100,000 people, while cigarettes cost $13.94 per pack.

4. Rhode Island: 67.37

Rhode Island has an adult smoking rate of 9.5% and a 19.5% year-on-year decline, the largest reduction among the top five. Its cigarette tax stands at $4.50 per pack, with an average pack costing $13.43.

5. New Jersey: 62.86

New Jersey completes the top five, recording an adult smoking rate of 9.1% and a 12.5% year-on-year decline. Cigarettes cost an average of $14.78 per pack, while quitting-related searches stand at 107.6 per 100,000 people.

“Our research shows there are still a lot of smokers globally, even with the growing awareness around the long-term health risk that comes with smoking and vaping. It’s promising to see Australia leading the way in the decline of smoking and with strong regulations around vaping.  

“Finding tailored and affordable health insurance can be crucial when facing a health issue. At iSelect we can help you compare plans with a range of health insurance providers to find the policy that suits your lifestyle and budget.” 

Andres Gutierrez

General Manager – Health at iSelect

Written by:

Sarah Grealy

Digital Public Relations Specialist

0413 363 690

sarah.grealy@iselect.com.au

Sarah is our Digital Public Relations Specialist, and brings more than a decade of experience in the insurance comparison industry to iSelect.

With a passion for storytelling through data-driven insights, Sarah strives to empower Aussies with practical guides and tips.

About the data 

This dataset ranks contains three rankings. One ranks a range of countries from across the globe, another ranks US states, and one ranks AUS states/territories, based on how popular and accessible cigarettes are in each location.

To do this, five different factors were used (four for Australia). Once the data for the factors was collected, the factors were then normalised to provide each factor with a score between 0 and 1. If data was not available, a score of 0 was given.

The normalised values were then combined to give each location a total score out of 100. The locations were then ranked from highest to lowest, based on their total scores.

The factors used are as follows:

  • Smoking Rate – The most recent smoking rate/prevalence of smoking figure, published by official/research sources.
  • Vaping Rate – The most recent prevalence of vaping figure. [AUS Only]
  • Smoking Rate Change – The change in smoking rate between the 2 latest figures. This is year-on-year for US states, and a 3-year change for countries, due to how frequently the data is published. [International & US Only]
  • 2030 Smoking Rate Prediction – The current predicted smoking rate in 2030, according to WHO. [International Only]
  • Cigarette Tax per Pack – The amount of tax paid on each pack of cigarettes, in USD. [US Only]
  • Cost of a Pack of Cigarettes – The cost of a pack of cigarettes (20 pack, Marlboro) in each location. For US & AUS states, the capital city of each state was used for the state value.
  • Quitting Smoking Related Searches per 100k – The total number of searches, between Jul 25 – Jun 26, for the following prompts: ‘quit smoking’, ‘quit smoking help’, ‘stop smoking’, ‘how to quit smoking’, ‘how quit smoking’, ‘quit smoking cigarettes’, ‘stop smoking cigarettes’, help to quit smoking’ & ‘quitting smoking’. For non-English speaking countries, the number of searches in English was compared to the number of searches in the native language(s), and the highest total was selected.

The factors were weighted as follows:

  • Smoking Rate – 35%
  • Smoking Rate Change (Vaping Rate for AUS) – 15%
  • Smoking Rate Prediction/Cigarette Tax – 10%
  • Cost of a Pack of Cigarettes – 20%
  • Quitting Smoking Related Searches per 100k – 20%

Note: Due to AUS has 1 factor less, the remaining 10% was spread across all other factors, resulting in them weighing 2.5% more.

The factors were indexed as follows:

  • Smoking Rate, Vaping Rate & Smoking Rate Change – Lower is better.
  • All Other Factors – Higher is better.

All data and exchange rates are correct as of 06/08/26. The ranking data shown is a compilation of multiple data sources and may not be representative of real life. All data is accurate with regards to the sources provided. An exchange rate of 1 USD – 1.42 AUD was used to convert currencies where required.

Global Index

AUS Index

US Index

An earlier article on the same topic for 2025 can be viewed here.

About

At iSelect, we’re passionate about making Aussies’ lives easier by saving them time, effort and money. We are Australia’s go-to destination for comparison across insurance, utilities and personal finance products made available from our range of providers. Our service is provided at no cost to the customer.

iSelect does not compare all health insurance providers or policies in the market. The availability of policies will change from time to time. Not all policies available from its providers are compared by iSelect and due to commercial arrangements, your stated needs and circumstances, not all policies compared by iSelect are available to all customers. Some policies and special offers are available only from iSelect’s contact centre or website. Click here to view iSelect’s range of providers